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Prediction for CME (2024-07-16T23:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-07-16T23:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32005/-1
CME Note: Faint CME seen as a halo in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and a partial halo in STEREO A COR2. The source is an M1.9 flare from AR 3744 (approx. N18W11) with peak time 2024-07-16T22:06Z. EUV wave, opening field lines, and dimming are best seen in SDO AIA 171/193. The eruption is not visible in STEREO A EUV imagery due to a data gap from 2024-07-16T13:35Z to 23:35Z. While there is some field line opening associated with another M-class flare shortly beforehand, M1.6 with peak time 2024-07-16T21:24Z, the broad area of dimming is more clearly associated with this later M1.9 flare. No clear CME arrival signature seen in solar wind.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-07-20T10:00Z (-10.0h, +10.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2024-07-17T04:00Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 530
Longitude (deg): 5E
Latitude (deg): 1S
Half-angular width (deg): 40

Notes: Halo portion of two coincident CMEs, likely mostly shock and maybe imperceptible alongside the other CME arrival.
Space weather advisor: Kirk Waite

Lead Time: 47.67 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2024-07-18T10:20Z

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